Very good question, lets check it out. At this point, almost all of the teams minus L.A. could be a first round matchup. It's so close and only a few games separate the top from bottom, so anything could happen. I am going to use my own, complex mathematical system to come up with a number on a scale of 1-10 for each possible matchup. 10 being a team I'd like the Jazz to face, and 1 being the team I'd least like to face in the 1st round.
-DALLAS MAVERICKS
Despite being at the top of the Southwest Division and the number 2 seed, I would actually love to play Dallas in the first round. We matchup very well against them and I dont know if any of you have noticed, AK always plays Dirk well and Dirk usually gets frustrated against him. We are 2-1 against them, the 2 wins being pretty good wins and the one loss being early in the year, when we had a 15 point lead going into the 4th and then Dirk dropped 29 in the 4th for a freak comeback win. That woudn't happen again, and if it weren't for that we'd have swept them. Of course we havent played them with their new roster, but I dont see Caron Butler as a matchup problem for the Jazz.
Mavericks- 7.47
-DENVER NUGGETS
There are a few variables to consider. 1-Will they have Kenyon Martin and 2-Will they have George Karl. If not, then bring them on. They already lacked frontcourt depth and with Martin out, they are on a downhill spiral, losing 5 of their last 6 games. However, we're going to assume that they will have them. Denver has owned us this year. The only game we won was without Melo and Billups but both teams have played a lot of games though since our last matchup. Carmelo really gives the Jazz problems. Nene plays ok against Boozer and, while in my mind, D-will has the slight edge over Billups, many people would say that matchup is a wash. D-will cant post up and abuse Billups like he does to smaller guards. Plus the Nuggets have some experience. This is also a possible 2nd round matchup and the key to this series may be home-court advantage, since both teams dominate at home.
Nuggets-4
-PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Plain and simple, We have owned the injury ridden Blazers this year. 4-0 against them with the last being that incredible overtime victory after being down 25 in the 3rd. We have the advantage at every position except the 2. Brandon Roy is amazing but the Jazz have done a good enough job on him that he can't dominate the game. Portland still doesnt have a ton of playoff experience, with a 1st round exit last year. Steve Blake and Andre Miller have lots of problems keeping up with Williams, and Aldridge isn't strong enough to guard Booze in the post.
Blazers-8.33333333
-PHOENIX SUNS
Here is my concern about playing the Suns; Out of the three times weve played them this year, we have won 2 and lost 1, but in all three games we have been bad/mediocre. 2 of the games, we made 4th quarter comebacks and somehow won the game. The one loss, was one of the worst all around games Ive seen us play all year. I doubt that this Suns team is going to let the Jazz make a big 4th quarter comeback more than once in the playoffs. Nash and Williams is always an awesome matchup, and Booze and Amare mathup fairly well, although sometimes Millsap and Booze seem a little intimidated in the paint around Amare. I really hate Amare, so that alone is one reason I would like to face them, to send him home crying. The Suns are an icredibly good 3 point shooting team. Richardson, Dudley, Frye, Barbosa, Dragic, and Hill can all shoot the 3, not to mention the best shooter in the league, Steve Nash. They dont scare me but they could be dangerous to play in the 1st round.
Suns-6
-OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
I know that everyone has been talking about how they are so young, and have no playoff experience, but for some reason that doesnt make me feel any better. The idea of having to stop Kevin Durant for a 7 game series seems like a nightmare. They have dominated us this year. They are a huge matchup problem for us, almost at every position. We have more talent, but they have so many great athletes and raw ability that many times they seem to offset. I know that sounds stupid, but watch Ibaka (some guy youve probably never heard of) guard Boozer. He's too quick for Boozer to drive around, and he is tall, long, and can jump, creating problems for Booze and Millsap to get up shots that aren't contested. They usually put Thabo Sefaloosha on D-will because he is bigger and is one of the leagues elite defenders. Russell Westbrook is so fast and athletic that neither Dwill nor Matthews (both great defenders) could stay in front of him. He reminded me of Tony Parker a few years ago, except with crazy hops. He got anywhere he wanted to on the floor. To be honest, this might be the only team we may face in the 1st round that I am scared of. I think we can beat them, but I am really hoping it doesnt have to be us playing them 1st.
Thunder-3
-SAN ANTONIO SPURS
My brother brought up an excellent point that the Spurs are playing fairly well, and Tony Parker will probably back for the playoffs. This is semi-scary. We have dominated the Spurs this year and they have no answer for Deron Williams. Parker is good, but nowhere near Williams, especially coming off an injury that had him missing the last couple months. Manu is looking pretty good, but Duncan is slowing down and playing average at best. Booze has always played really well against Tim. Somewhere along the line he gained a lot of confidence matching up with him and isn't scared of his length. He takes it right at Duncan and draws fouls and doesn't shy away from contact, something I really wish he could learn to do against Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum. I know they are a veteran team with plenty of experience, but we matchup well with them. The Spurs are just to old to put together a playoff push, thats my feeling.
Spurs-6.5
So there you have it. In my humble, unprofessional opinion, I would love to see the Blazers and I hope to avoid the Thunder. Let me know your thoughts, and if you agree/disagree.
Sean
I agree with 83.50 percent of your matchup diagnosis. Some thoughts of mine: I agree with Portland being the most favorable matchup. We would kill them, especially with their bigs all injured. I think my next preferred matchup would be Phoenix or OK city. I don't think either of these would be easy, but I believe we would win the series. Durrant is a beast, and would cause nightmares, but I think AK would step up to the challenge. If we faced them without AK, we'd lose for sure. But I think our experience and maturity (execution) would carry us through vs. OK City. I agree with your Dallas assessment. I think it might take us 7 games, but I think we'd win the series. The only part I would disagree is with the Spurs. I know it's been a tougher year for them with injuries, and aging. But here's what scares me. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli have won championships together. They are still together. Parker would be coming off an injury, but he would also have very fresh legs, and I think D Will would have a rough time staying in front of him. Ginobli has played great the second half of the season, as long as his back spasms subside. Grant it, they havent looked too good, (they just lost to the Nets for hells sake). But when it is playoff basketball, and these 3 are on the court, I would be nervous, to say the least. So with this said, I believe the only 2 teams that will send the Jazz home this year are either Denver, or LA. Denver has hit a rough patch. If the series started today, with Kenyon still out, I think we'd win. But with Kenyon back, possibly George Karl too, I think the Nggets would win. It pains me to say that..
ReplyDeleteI wanna hear your thoughts on what the Jazz should do after this year. And I'm mainly interested in your Boozer opinion. Resign him? get rid of him? If so, who do we bring in? One opinion I've had for the last year or 2, is that I would love having Bosh instead of Boozer. I'm not saying that it is a realistic trade, but Bosh has been a guy a lot of people have come to love, and Jazz fans especially love this idea of somewhow acquiring Bosh. I was on this bandwagon for a while. But in the past couple weeks, I've changed my mind. I think I would rather have Boozer over Bosh. I love the D Will, Boozer tandem. Name 3 other BETTER tandems than D Will and Boozer?? I like Bosh a lot, and I do like his game, but to me, right now, id take Boozer over him.
ReplyDeleteI'll rank from 1-6, hence the number of teams listed. 1. Blazers: We have their number as Todd likes to say. Brandon Roy is amazing, but can't carry his whole team throughout the playoffs. 2. Spurs: They just lost to the Nets haha, they're looking old, tired and injured. Bring on the experience factor. I think their peak has passed 3.Nuggets: I think the loss of George Karl is affecting them more than they think, it could be a huge advantage. Martin being out helps our case as well. 4. Suns: This is a great team under Nash, I think they want it and are a dangerous team in the playoffs especially with Amare. That guy is a beast, even if he travels :) 5. Thunder: This team that has OUR number. Like you said, a match up nightmare for the Jazz. 6. Mavs: This would be the last team I would want the Jazz to take on first round. Dirk, Butler, Kidd and Terry off the bench, just to name a few, is a dangerous match-up for the Jazz. Dirk is unreal! ESPN and TNT love this team too, so I've watch plenty of the Dallas Mavericks and man, they are no joke.
ReplyDeleteya i agree with you, thunder are overlooked at being a playoff power house, once they get rolling it will be hard to stop them... although they are young and that could be a set back due to lack of experience. I think the nuggets would be the worst matchup for the jazz right now. and if thats the case i predict that nuggets will dominate that series
ReplyDeleteNO WAY! you would rather play the Spurs and Suns than the Thunder? Thunder are too young and have NO experience. They will be down 2-0 before they know what hit them. Come on Seas. Spurs and Suns are veteren teams capable of beating anyone in a series.
ReplyDeletebring on the thunder. sure they have beaten us, but that just means the are due for a good old d-will ass whippin. their luck has just run out.
ReplyDeleteblake plays for the clippers, not the blazers
ReplyDeletethe jazz have owned my blazers, and i think the blazers would be better if totally healthy and if they committed to playing at a faster pace but neither of those is the case.
ReplyDeletei think the sonics (i refuse to call seattle's hijacked team by its new name) have the best chance of beating the jazz - this is the most athletic team in the league and durant is a matchup nightmare for any player. still, i think you need some reps before making a move in the playoffs so the jazz would probably beat the sonics in 6 hard fought games.
the jazz would fairly easily dispatch dallas becuase utah's frontline is so much tougher and more physical and deron will abuse dallas's point guards. and based on how utah is playing now they could beat denver too as deron is definitely better than chauncey and the jazz frontline can is so much better offensively.
to me the wild card for the jazz is andrei kirilenko - if his head is screwed on right (no sure thing) and if he can regain any semblance of his 2004 form then he is a difference maker because he is so tall, long, quick, skilled, and athletic. he can be a shot-blocker when they go small, he can guard the opposing teams best perimeter player, and he can serve as a point forward. if only.....
by the way everyone when you're done here make sure to check out www.arjun-allthingssports.blogspot.com for candid and insightful analysis